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January 12, 2024

Five hot banking Q4 trends

TLDR: The fourth-quarter earnings reports from large U.S. banks will reveal key trends in the industry, including loan growth, deposit growth, expense growth, credit quality, and capital ratios. Analysts expect loan growth to be soft due to downward pressure on loan supply and demand, while deposits are expected to further stabilize after a period of outflows. Expenses are likely to continue growing, but cost-cutting remains a priority for many banks. Credit trends are expected to “normalize” as charge-offs tick upward, particularly in commercial real estate loans and credit cards. Banks will continue to build capital in anticipation of tougher rules, with most buybacks on hold.